The first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors was undoubtedly one of the most thrilling series of the postseason. The two teams battled fiercely all the way to Game 7, where every possession was a do-or-die moment. In the end, the Rockets narrowly fell to the Warriors in this decisive game, marking the end of their playoff journey this season. Throughout the series, the Rockets showcased their youth and potential, with a strong defensive prowess and a mature game mentality. However, this loss also highlighted the limitations they face in their adaptation to the modern evolution of basketball.
The core concept of Moneyball lies in the fact that the expected scoring value of a three-point shot surpasses that of other types of attempts. Based on specific data, even with a three-point shooting accuracy of just 35%, the expected points per attempt remain higher than a two-point shot with a 50% success rate. This ideology has driven modern basketball to embrace frequent three-point shooting, emphasizing spacing on the court and a fast-paced style.
The Golden State Warriors epitomize this trend flawlessly. Despite Stephen Curry’s fluctuating form, coach Steve Kerr remains steadfast in his tactical system, keeping the Warriors a dominant shooting squad. Young players like Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski have showcased impressive three-point shooting skills. While they may not yet rival the legendary Splash Brothers of the past, their clutch shots in critical moments have continuously turned the tide in the Warriors’ favor.
The Rockets came fully prepared for this series, identifying their strengths in height and interior dominance. Rather than engaging in a three-point shootout with the Warriors, they chose to leverage their advantage in the paint to break through. Throughout the series, the Rockets showcased a consistent tactical approach, focusing on low-post isolations and maximizing the performance of their interior players. Their total free throw attempts reached 140, significantly higher than the Warriors’ 94, and they led the rebound count 328 to 277, clearly demonstrating the power of their inside game.
The Rockets leveraged steady offense and defense to climb the score multiple times, even forcing the series into a Game 7, proving that their chosen tactics were not flawed. However, whenever the Rockets worked hard to build a lead, the Warriors would swiftly counterattack with rapid three-pointers to turn the tide. This fully showcased the power of the ‘Moreyball’ philosophy, capable of instantly neutralizing the advantage the Rockets had worked to establish.
The pressure and tension of Game 7 peaked in the final minute, where the Rockets launched several aggressive attempts to turn the game around. However, the Warriors’ Hield sank two back-to-back, incredibly difficult three-pointers, flipping the script in an instant. The Rockets’ counterattack couldn’t hold. Over the series, the Warriors attempted 302 three-pointers with a success rate of 35.8%, while the Rockets only attempted 198 with a slightly higher accuracy of 37.4%. On the surface, the Rockets appeared more precise, but the sheer volume of the Warriors’ attempts earned them an additional 24 points. For the Rockets to bridge that gap, they would have needed to score an extra 12 shots in the two-point range, highlighting the fierce and evenly matched intensity of the competition.
While the Rockets’ gameplay is precise, their scoring pace is relatively slow. In contrast, the Warriors relied on a high volume of three-pointers and explosive plays to widen the gap during critical moments. This series once again underscores the harsh reality of the ‘Moreyball’ philosophy: In today’s NBA, the sheer number of three-point attempts completely dictates the flow of the game. Regardless of the shooting percentage, quantity eventually leads to a qualitative shift.
