Recent analyses of the risks associated with aggressive batting styles reveal an interesting trend: while players’ exit velocities continue to rise, the injury risk for pitchers shows a relative decrease. This suggests that mainstream batting techniques are evolving, reducing the threat that powerful hitters pose to pitchers. However, high-velocity contact remains a potential danger, underscoring the urgent need to enhance safety measures. There’s still much work to do, especially in increasing the use of protective gear for pitchers.
For every player who steps onto the baseball field, getting hit by a fastball traveling at speeds of up to 100 miles per hour is undeniably a terrifying experience. Yet, many players and fans seem to overlook that this small ball, when struck with full force, can indeed become a deadly weapon. Looking back, both the tragedy of Ray Chapman and the injuries that have occurred during numerous games have pushed hitters to start wearing various protective gear. However, it appears that the baseball community is still not taking the safety measures for pitchers seriously enough.
The safety of pitchers is a critical issue that deserves attention, especially since the speeds of the batted balls they face often exceed their fastest pitches. Some line drives can reach up to 119 miles per hour, placing pitchers in a split-second scenario that tests the very limits of human reflexes. Furthermore, although batters typically possess excellent vision and reaction times, the process and outcomes of the pitcher’s performance are often overlooked. As data analysis increasingly highlights the importance of exit velocity, we cannot ignore this escalating concern.
According to the data, the number of balls that reached an initial speed of at least 90 miles per hour has increased by 8.7% recently, while the number exceeding 110 miles per hour has skyrocketed by 41%. Does this trend indicate that the already fragile risk for pitchers is once again on the rise?
Diving deep into the threats that line drives pose to pitchers is truly challenging, mainly because there aren’t many related samples available. According to data from Sports Info Solutions, there are only about 10 incidents each year where a safety player needs to step in immediately, making long-term safety assessments even harder.
While head injuries in sports are uncommon, they are among the most concerning. Take for example Bobby Miller, who encountered a 105 mph line drive that grazed his forehead during spring training, yet he emerged nearly unscathed. In stark contrast, Brandon McCarthy faced a similar incident in 2012 that nearly cost him his life.
To effectively address this issue, we need to conduct a more comprehensive study of the potential samples of assault balls in order to develop scientific protective recommendations. If the incidence of assault balls changes, we may be able to perform predictive analyses of the actual injury risks.
It’s essential to clearly define the standard for Danger hitting. Although this definition is still a work in progress, we can consider a line drive traveling a few feet from the pitcher as a benchmark. For instance, after the pitcher delivers the pitch, the ball should be about 55.5 feet from home plate and 4.4 feet above the ground. This data takes into account the average height of Major League pitchers and the height of the pitcher’s mound. A three-foot buffer range can serve as a safeguard, aiming to cover any discrepancies in the ball’s trajectory after the pitch.
To dodge line drives hit by powerful batters like Aaron Judge, it’s clearly not feasible to rely on the pitcher’s positioning after the pitch. This highlights the inherent risks that pitchers must bear while throwing.
By employing trigonometric functions, we can cross-analyze this Danger definition with every hit data from the Statcast era to identify which hits are potential dangerous line drives. In the coming seasons, we will continue to analyze over 50,000 hits from the perspective of batters, particularly focusing on those with an initial speed exceeding 95 miles per hour that meet the stringent criteria of Dangerous Assault Ball.
For instance, Giancarlo Stanton recorded a bat speed of 119.1 miles per hour on August 2, 2018. If the pitcher is taller, that ball could pose a significant danger. Then there’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who on August 31, 2022, hit a pitch with an initial speed of 118.4 miles per hour, just about 1.8 feet from the pitcher’s chest. These examples will be focal points as we hope to see continuous improvements in safety measures for pitchers.
