SpaceX IPO rumors say the company could list in the United States at a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, people familiar with the matter said, as investors weigh the combined promise of Starlink and the Starship program.
Those people, who requested anonymity because the discussions are private, said the figures reflect early interest among institutional investors and bankers exploring a US offering. If the valuation range holds, the offering would be one of the largest initial public offerings in recent years.
SpaceX is not a conventional software company. It operates rocket launches, satellite internet services, defense contracts, and long-term space-transport projects, and it has been credited with commercializing reusable-rocket technology that has lowered launch costs and increased access to space.
Starlink is the core business underpinning the valuation
Investors are placing a premium on Starlink, SpaceX’s low-Earth-orbit satellite internet service, rather than on launches alone. Starlink had about 10.3 million subscribers and provided roughly $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue in the first quarter of 2026, according to people familiar with internal investor materials and industry estimates.
Those people said Starlink’s service now reaches more than 160 countries and territories, and that its subscription model gives SpaceX recurring revenue that contrasts with the one-off nature of launch contracts.
Starlink does not rely on terrestrial fiber networks, which allows it to serve remote regions, ocean shipping lanes, and some aviation markets. That addressable market is a major part of why analysts and potential investors assign high value to a possible SpaceX IPO.
Competition in low-orbit broadband is intensifying, and regulators continue to debate spectrum allocation and satellite licensing requirements. Those hurdles could slow growth and affect how the market prices a SpaceX IPO over time.
Starship is the decade-long bet
If Starlink represents the company’s near-term revenue engine, Starship represents the long-term vision. Starship is SpaceX’s super heavy-lift rocket designed for lunar missions, deep-space exploration, and, ultimately, Mars transport.
Compared with the Falcon 9, Starship is designed to carry far larger payloads at lower theoretical cost per ton transported, and analysts say a functioning Starship could reshape space logistics. Elon Musk has repeatedly described Starship as essential to his goal of making life multiplanetary.
But Starship remains in a testing and validation phase, with an uncertain timeline to commercial operations. Each test result, regulatory approval, and technical milestone could move investor sentiment for a SpaceX IPO.
Three principal risks behind a high valuation
Even as growth narratives attract valuations in the trillions, investors should weigh three clear risks. First, profitability remains unresolved. People familiar with SpaceX financial estimates said the company generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and reported a net loss near $4.9 billion, and that first-quarter 2026 revenue ran about $4.7 billion with a loss near $4.3 billion.
Second, governance arrangements are likely to leave Elon Musk with dominant voting control through a special share structure, the people said. That structure can help maintain long-range strategy, but it limits influence for ordinary public shareholders.
Third, regulatory and geopolitical risks matter. SpaceX’s mix of satellite communications, defense work, and international expansion means export controls, spectrum disputes, and national security reviews could affect operations and market access.
Should Hong Kong investors participate in a SpaceX IPO?
If SpaceX does pursue a US listing, Hong Kong retail investors would typically participate through brokers that support US IPO allocations or by buying shares on the secondary market after listing, brokers and financial advisers said.
Before deciding, investors should be clear about their objectives. A SpaceX IPO is unlikely to be a dividend-paying, steady-earnings stock at the outset. Instead, it resembles earlier public entries like Tesla and Amazon, firms that reinvested heavily to expand market reach.
If an investor believes global communications, space transport, and space infrastructure will transform over the next two decades, a SpaceX IPO would offer direct exposure to that trend. If not, the company’s high valuation and remaining technical uncertainties argue for caution.
Investors and advisers said they expect the SpaceX IPO story to center on Starlink’s subscriber growth and Starship’s progress, and that those two factors will determine whether the rumored valuation range is justified.
People familiar with the matter stressed that the valuation range discussed in markets reflects expectations about future cash flows rather than current profits, and that valuation could change quickly as new information on Starlink or Starship becomes public.
